Germany’s Nuclear Decisions – Maybe Not the Optimal Timing??

Germany wants to be 'green' and non-nuclear and there's no question that Germany has been setting the bar for renewable energy. At present, over 20 percent of national production is from renewables, particularly wind.  The goals are lofty - by 2020 Germany plans to produce 35% of electricity from local renewables and 50% by 2030. Significant goals indeed - considering that Germany is Europe’s largest electricity market.

At present Germany produces more electricity than it consumes, and has considerable excess generation capacity. Although, because of some internal transmission constraints, Germany imports small amounts of power.

This rosy picture could change dramatically in a few years due to both nuclear power policy decisions and Eurozone economics.

Germany is the fourth largest producer of nuclear power in the world. In 2000 following the country’s pace-setting start-up of wind and solar technology, and pressure by various green organizations, the government agreed to phase out all nuclear power plants by 2021. In September 2010, however, the German government reached a hard-fought deal to allow the nation’s 17 nuclear plants to run, on average, 12 years longer than planned, with some remaining in production until the 2030s.

Then came the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster that turned the world perception of nuclear power safety on its ear. As a result, Germany changed its mind again and now plans to close all nuclear plants in the country by 2022. A tall order considering that nuclear power now provides almost one-third of the country's electricity generation.

Germany plans to replace the nukes with a combination of gas-fired and coal-fired electricity and increased imports.

Talk about not-in-my-backyard on a national scale! Germany will end up buying a lot of imported power, particularly from the French nuclear plants, while satisfying domestic anti-nuke, anti-coal sentiments.

Then there’s the never-ending Eurozone economic crisis. Germany is looked to as the shining knight to rescue Greece and several other nations from defaulting on international loans. But regardless of Germany’s intervention, things could go south in a hurry and the value of the euro could collapse. If it does, economists estimate a drop of up to 25% of German GDP in the first year after a major disruption of the European Monetary Union.

Germany’s European neighbors aren’t optimistic. “Germany will be even more dependent on fossil fuels and imports and its electricity will be more expensive and polluting,” French Industry Minister Eric Besson said. “German households pay twice as much for power than homes in France, where 80 percent of electricity comes from atomic plants.”

No matter how you look at it, this is not a good time to increase dependence on energy imports or to increase electric rates. We’ll see how much the German ratepayers are willing to shell out.

We may see Germany changing its nuclear power policies– again!

About the Author

Editor:

Paul Mauldin

Paul earned his B.S. and an M.S. in electrical engineering from the University of California-Berkeley and is a registered professional engineer. He has worked in the energy industry for more than 25 years, developing and implementing advanced energy technologies. As research director for Pacific Gas and Electric Co. he pioneered methodologies used in the design, maintenance and control of energy delivery systems. As a consultant he has provided guidance to utilities and the vendor community, nationally and internationally.